週結(2020年9月21-25日)
9月3日YTD曾見8.2%後，組合回報最近遭受很大程度打擊，在漫長下跌浪中，偶爾出現一兩天的向上反彈假突破，組合曾沽出指數ETF，反彈時曾高追，第２天大市又大插，正如黃國英常提到的買完又斬，斬完又買，無限輪迴，極度消磨鬥志。他提到一動不如一靜，不過知易行難，心態才是股市長遠致勝的關鍵。
今週版主減持傳統產業股至16%，增持科技股及買入納指100ETF。疫情於歐洲又再度惡化，科技股隨時又成為避風港。聯儲局自７月後沒有擴大資產負債表規模，可能是大市弱勢的原因。
2020年9月18日 星期五
2020年9月14日 星期一
大盤走勢沒特別看法
市況短評
上週五晚深夜時2,3點紮醒了，做了一輪買賣後，本來已打算將QQQ換碼至SPY，因近日傳統產業股明顯有轉好的跡象，及８月時納指中線市寬熊背馳明顯過標指。不過凌晨３點幾紮醒實在仍然太眼訓，所以遲至今天才換碼至標普500ETF: SPY。淨倉位回升至99%。傳產股佔組合31.6%。
| 組合長倉持股(截至14-9-2020 10:20pm) | 比重 |
| 北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至9-9-2020) | 13.62% |
| 美股 | |
| ETFs - Large Cap: | |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 30.50% |
| SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust | 6.42% |
| Internet Commerce: | |
| Amazon.com, Inc. | 5.56% |
| Semi Fab Foundries: | |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd | 4.64% |
| Semi General: | |
| NVIDIA Corp | 4.77% |
| Healthcare - Diagnostics & Research: | |
| Danaher Corp | 4.20% |
| Medical Instruments: | |
| Thermo Fisher Scientific | 4.23% |
| Beverages - Alcohol: | |
| Brown-Forman Corp | 3.89% |
| Paint & Related Products: | |
| Sherwin-Williams Company | 3.79% |
| Building - Maint & Service: | |
| Rollins, Inc. | 4.34% |
| Soap and Cleaning Products: | |
| Colgate-Palmolive Company | 2.87% |
| Procter & Gamble Company | 3.08% |
| Chemical - Diversified: | |
| Air Products and Chemicals | 2.95% |
| Waste Removal Svcs: | |
| Republic Services | 4.27% |
| 現金+人壽儲蓄保險 | 15.48% |
| 總倉位 | 114.5% |
| 淨倉位(長-短-現金) | 99.08% |
| 組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息) | 0% |
| 恆指YTD(截至14-9-2020) | -12.59% |
| 道指YTD(截至11-9-2020) | -1.86% |
| 標普500YTD(截至11-9-2020) | 3.41% |
2020年9月12日 星期六
日趨明顯的板塊輪動
週結(7.9.2020-11.9.2020)
板塊輪動日趨明顯，增長股和價值股差距於９月初超越千禧年科網狂潮水平，加上美國疫後經濟逐漸復甦，最新失業率下跌至8.4%，近日急調整市中，資金沒有明顯撤出股市，但有部份從互聯網股流出，流向有增長能力的傳統產業股。週五晚進一步減持科技股，沽出QQQ,AAPL，但買入醫療儀器股TMO。現金提升至33%。傳統產業股佔組合31.6%。
| 組合長倉持股(截至11-9-2020) | 比重 |
| 北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至9-9-2020) | 13.62% |
| 美股 | |
| ETFs - Large Cap: | |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 12.21% |
| SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust | 6.42% |
| Internet Commerce: | |
| Amazon.com, Inc. | 5.56% |
| Semi Fab Foundries: | |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd | 4.64% |
| Semi General: | |
| NVIDIA Corp | 4.77% |
| Healthcare - Diagnostics & Research: | |
| Danaher Corp | 4.20% |
| Medical Instruments: | |
| Thermo Fisher Scientific | 4.23% |
| Beverages - Alcohol: | |
| Brown-Forman Corp | 3.89% |
| Paint & Related Products: | |
| Sherwin-Williams Company | 3.79% |
| Building - Maint & Service: | |
| Rollins, Inc. | 4.34% |
| Soap and Cleaning Products: | |
| Colgate-Palmolive Company | 2.87% |
| Procter & Gamble Company | 3.08% |
| Chemical - Diversified: | |
| Air Products and Chemicals | 2.95% |
| Waste Removal Svcs: | |
| Republic Services | 4.27% |
| 現金+人壽儲蓄保險 | 33.86% |
| 總倉位 | 114.7% |
| 淨倉位(長-短-現金) | 80.85% |
| 組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息) | -1.43% |
| 恆指YTD(截至11-9-2020) | -13.08% |
| 道指YTD(截至11-9-2020) | -1.86% |
| 標普500YTD(截至11-9-2020) | 3.41% |
2020年9月9日 星期三
增持舊經濟
市況短評
版主週二晚沽出TSLA & MSFT，組合上週三曾見YTD8.2%，只３個交易天，重新陷入負回報區，增持現金，持倉降至99%，換碼2月中時曾沽出的Republic Services，舊經濟比重增加至佔組合31.2%。這輪調整之急實超出預期，板塊及個股注碼控制是關鍵。版主一向甚少加碼個股，一向買定不離手，買了一注後，只有減無加，以防看錯市時在個別股票上泥足深陷。
| 組合長倉持股(截至8-9-2020) | 比重 |
| 北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至4-9-2020) | 13.82% |
| 美股 | |
| ETFs - Large Cap: | |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 12.24% |
| Invesco QQQ Trust | 19.35% |
| SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust | 6.42% |
| Internet Commerce: | |
| Amazon.com, Inc. | 5.65% |
| Computer Mini: | |
| Apple | 3.64% |
| Semi Fab Foundries: | |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd | 4.57% |
| Semi General: | |
| NVIDIA Corp | 4.70% |
| Healthcare - Diagnostics & Research: | |
| Danaher Corp | 4.04% |
| Beverages - Alcohol: | |
| Brown-Forman Corp | 3.89% |
| Paint & Related Products: | |
| Sherwin-Williams Company | 3.60% |
| Building - Maint & Service: | |
| Rollins, Inc. | 4.34% |
| Soap and Cleaning Products: | |
| Colgate-Palmolive Company | 2.85% |
| Procter & Gamble Company | 3.05% |
| Chemical - Diversified: | |
| Air Products and Chemicals | 2.90% |
| Waste Removal Svcs: | |
| Republic Services | 4.18% |
| 現金+人壽儲蓄保險 | 15.50% |
| 總倉位 | 114.80% |
| 淨倉位(長-短-現金) | 99.20% |
| 組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息) | -2.00% |
| 恆指YTD(截至9-9-2020) | -13.2% |
| 道指YTD(截至8-9-2020) | -2.44% |
| 標普500YTD(截至8-9-2020) | 3.12% |
2020年9月5日 星期六
急調整
市況短評
週四、五突如其來的急跌，版主估計同美國兩黨未傾掂數有關，好多投資者profit taking，造成慢升急調整局面。版主週五晚止賺身為Ｎasdaq Composite index一員的POOL。今年POOL受惠疫情股價在３月底以來股價節節上升，版主沽出在Nasdaq上市的POOL，換碼至Brown-Forman Corp。BF從事製造、進出口及銷售酒精飲料業務，包括whisky，伏特加、葡萄酒等。近日跌市元凶是資訊科技股，版主增持舊經濟比重，以應付大波動的個別科技股。舊經濟股佔組合26.3%。
週四、五突如其來的急跌，版主估計同美國兩黨未傾掂數有關，好多投資者profit taking，造成慢升急調整局面。版主週五晚止賺身為Ｎasdaq Composite index一員的POOL。今年POOL受惠疫情股價在３月底以來股價節節上升，版主沽出在Nasdaq上市的POOL，換碼至Brown-Forman Corp。BF從事製造、進出口及銷售酒精飲料業務，包括whisky，伏特加、葡萄酒等。近日跌市元凶是資訊科技股，版主增持舊經濟比重，以應付大波動的個別科技股。舊經濟股佔組合26.3%。
| 組合長倉持股(截至4-9-2020) | 比重 |
| 北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至2-9-2020) | 13.65% |
| 美股 | |
| ETFs - Large Cap: | |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 12.05% |
| Invesco QQQ Trust | 19.47% |
| SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust | 6.29% |
| Internet Commerce: | |
| Amazon.com, Inc. | 5.65% |
| Computer - Software: | |
| Microsoft Corp | 4.60% |
| Computer Mini: | |
| Apple | 3.74% |
| Semi Fab Foundries: | |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd | 4.47% |
| Semi General: | |
| NVIDIA Corp | 4.77% |
| Auto - Domestic: | |
| Tesla | 5.38% |
| Healthcare - Diagnostics & Research: | |
| Danaher Corp | 3.88% |
| Beverages - Alcohol: | |
| Brown-Forman Corp | 3.78% |
| Paint & Related Products: | |
| Sherwin-Williams Company | 3.50% |
| Building - Maint & Service: | |
| Rollins, Inc. | 4.22% |
| Soap and Cleaning Products: | |
| Colgate-Palmolive Company | 2.78% |
| Procter & Gamble Company | 2.96% |
| Chemical - Diversified: | |
| Air Products and Chemicals | 2.82% |
| 現金+人壽儲蓄保險 | 10.10% |
| 總倉位 | 114.00% |
| 淨倉位(長-短-現金) | 104.00% |
| 組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息) | 2.34% |
| 恆指YTD(截至4-9-2020) | -12.40% |
| 標普500YTD(截至4-9-2020) | 6.07% |
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