工業股

市況短評

版主減持個別板塊比重，沽出CHD，但暫時不想再增持科技股，換碼至早前曾沽出的氣體生產商APD，組合本身較缺少這類化學品股，保持舊經濟佔組合約23%。經濟復甦應可帶動工業股盈利回升。

組合長倉持股(截至1-9-2020)	比重
北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至28-8-2020)	12.80%
美股
ETFs - Large Cap:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	12.00%
Invesco QQQ Trust	19.58%
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust	6.23%
Internet Commerce:
Amazon.com, Inc.	5.71%
Computer - Software:
Microsoft Corp	4.79%
Computer Mini:
Apple	3.78%
Semi Fab Foundries:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd	4.43%
Semi General:
NVIDIA Corp	4.80%
Auto - Domestic:
Tesla	5.70%
Healthcare - Diagnostics & Research:
Danaher Corp	3.93%
Leisure & Recreational Prdcts:
Pool Corp	4.16%
Paint & Related Products:
Sherwin-Williams Company	3.37%
Building - Maint & Service:
Rollins, Inc.	4.13%
Soap and Cleaning Products:
Colgate-Palmolive Company	2.77%
Procter & Gamble Company	2.88%
Chemical - Diversified:
Air Products and Chemicals	2.73%
現金+人壽儲蓄保險	10.00%
總倉位	113.80%
淨倉位(長-短-現金)	103.80%
組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息)	7.38%
恆指YTD(截至1-9-2020)	-10.66%
標普500YTD(截至1-9-2020)	9.16%

第N次版塊輪動

市況短評

版主週一晚減持個別板塊比重，暫時止賺TMO，平沽ADBE，醫療板塊有資金流出，重新買入道指ETF。舊經濟佔組合比重微升至23%。近月久唔久出現今晚這樣的板塊輪動，暫時想出的應對方法是組合以新經濟為首、舊經濟為副。新經濟似乎以持有大盤股較好防守，雖則爆發力是較差了點。

組合長倉持股(截至27-8-2020)	比重
北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至25-8-2020)	13.00%
美股
ETFs - Large Cap:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	12.15%
Invesco QQQ Trust	19.65%
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust	6.36%
Internet Commerce:
Amazon.com, Inc.	5.74%
Computer - Software:
Microsoft Corp	4.63%
Computer Mini:
Apple	3.96%
Semi Fab Foundries:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd	4.51%
Semi General:
NVIDIA Corp	4.84%
Auto - Domestic:
Tesla	5.25%
Conglomerates - Div Operations:
Danaher Corp	4.10%
Leisure & Recreational Prdcts:
Pool Corp	4.35%
Paint & Related Products:
Sherwin-Williams Company	3.49%
Building - Maint & Service:
Rollins, Inc.	4.31%
Soap and Cleaning Products:
Church & Dwight Company	2.91%
Colgate-Palmolive Company	2.87%
Procter & Gamble Company	2.98%
現金+人壽儲蓄保險	9.95%
總倉位	115.10%
淨倉位(長-短-現金)	105.15%
組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息)	4.8%
恆指YTD(截至27-8-2020)	-10.32%
標普500YTD(截至27-8-2020)	7.85%

持續近乎零息環境

市況短評

版主沽出舊經濟SCL、APD，買入微軟、Adobe，增加組合攻擊力。舊經濟股減持至佔組合17%。本週標普500曾創歷史新高及收市新高，但未能企穩於最高位之上，不過今年應是2009年QE翻版，暫時又不太擔心隨著指數上升，市況風險升溫之類。真係要擔心的應是聯儲局幾時重啟加息周期，屆時才可能會有大調整出現，但版主估計最快是2022年以後才發生。

組合長倉持股(截至21-8-2020)	比重
北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至19-8-2020)	13.19%
美股
ETFs - Large Cap:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	12.15%
Invesco QQQ Trust	19.61%
Internet Commerce:
Amazon.com, Inc.	5.78%
Computer - Software:
Microsoft Corp	4.70%
Adobe Systems Inc	2.51%
Computer Mini:
Apple	3.73%
Semi Fab Foundries:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd	4.44%
Semi General:
NVIDIA Corp	4.68%
Auto - Domestic:
Tesla	5.25%
Conglomerates - Div Operations:
Danaher Corp	4.14%
Medical Instruments:
Thermo Fisher Scientific	4.07%
Leisure & Recreational Prdcts:
Pool Corp	4.28%
Paint & Related Products:
Sherwin-Williams Company	3.51%
Building - Maint & Service:
Rollins, Inc.	4.32%
Soap and Cleaning Products:
Church & Dwight Company	2.96%
Colgate-Palmolive Company	2.88%
Procter & Gamble Company	3.00%
現金+人壽儲蓄保險	10.05%
總倉位	115.25%
淨倉位(長-短-現金)	105.20%
組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息)	2.44%
恆指YTD(截至21-8-2020)	-10.91%
標普500YTD(截至21-8-2020)	5.15%

買入consumer staples

市況短評

版主本週二沽出餘下道指ETF，不過換碼至同是舊經濟的consumer staples，都是之前買過的CHD、CL、PG。它們表現一直優於道指。版主覺得道指跑得較慢，實在有需要換碼至以上三隻耐用品股。買入consumer staples旨在降低組合波幅。CL、PG產品在香港隨處有售。舊經濟股仍舊佔組合約25%。

另外，止賺部份SPY，再買入AAPL，據稱Donald Trump若禁Apple apps store下載微信，內地達95%人民不會再買蘋果，但版主覺得最大情況只會禁止下載海外版微信。台積電不再接任何華為手機定單，華為手機用晒目前晶片庫存，新一批手機性能不免downgrade，真的會不用蘋果？若有心禁埋android play store下載微信，內地網民也不能以Samsung代替蘋果。

組合長倉持股(截至18-8-2020)	比重
北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至14-8-2020)	13.14%
美股
ETFs - Large Cap:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	12.19%
Invesco QQQ Trust	19.43%
Internet Commerce:
Amazon.com, Inc.	5.75%
Computer Mini:
Apple	3.65%
Semi Fab Foundries:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd	4.63%
Semi General:
NVIDIA Corp	4.74%
Auto - Domestic:
Tesla	5.19%
Conglomerates - Div Operations:
Danaher Corp	4.20%
Medical Instruments:
Thermo Fisher Scientific	4.05%
Leisure & Recreational Prdcts:
Pool Corp	4.34%
Paint & Related Products:
Sherwin-Williams Company	3.55%
Building - Maint & Service:
Rollins, Inc.	4.33%
Soap and Cleaning Products:
Church & Dwight Company	2.96%
Colgate-Palmolive Company	2.86%
Procter & Gamble Company	3.01%
Chemical - Diversified:
Air Products & Chemicals	3.80%
Stepan Company	3.94%
現金+人壽儲蓄保險	9.53%
總倉位	115.28%
淨倉位(長-短-現金)	105.76%
組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息)	1.15%
恆指YTD(截至19-8-2020)	-10.68%
標普500YTD(截至18-8-2020)	4.92%

難盡復舊觀

市況短評

板塊輪動參與過一陣就算，睇番2009年-2015年之三輪QE年代，始終還是科技增長股跑贏，組合再次買入QQQ，減持部份DIA。低息環境下，銀行股受制存貸息差收窄表現不佳，會限制道指升幅。波音等航空股亦難盡復舊觀，因為今次疫情過後，不少人仍然心有餘悸，影響往後搭飛機及旅行意欲。版主本週一晚止賺AAPL，組合已有台積電及Nvidia，走勢其實有點相似，亦有點擔心Donald Trump出招制裁微信，影響蘋果在中國銷量。版主再次買入Tesla。Tesla最近賣點是發展太陽能蓄電系統，值得注意。

有網友曾言：最佳的防守便是進攻。突然記得金庸巨著《笑傲江湖》主角風清揚教導獨孤九劍時，主角令狐沖曾問過要訣，風老話獨孤九劍，只攻不守。謀勇兼備者的確可以一試，不過版主較膽小，舊經濟股仍佔組合25%。

組合長倉持股(截至17-8-2020)	比重
北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至13-8-2020)	13.23%
美股
ETFs - Large Cap:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	16.11%
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust	9.36%
Invesco QQQ Trust	19.41%
Internet Commerce:
Amazon.com, Inc.	5.62%
Auto - Domestic:
Tesla	4.73%
Semi Fab Foundries:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd	4.68%
Semi General:
NVIDIA Corp	4.74%
Conglomerates - Div Operations:
Danaher Corp	4.18%
Medical Instruments:
Thermo Fisher Scientific	4.06%
Leisure & Recreational Prdcts:
Pool Corp	4.32%
Paint & Related Products:
Sherwin-Williams Company	3.55%
Building - Maint & Service:
Rollins, Inc.	4.38%
Chemical - Diversified:
Air Products & Chemicals	3.87%
Stepan Company	3.94%
現金+人壽儲蓄保險	9.18%
總倉位	115.35%
淨倉位(長-短-現金)	106.17%
組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息)	0.74%
恆指YTD(截至18-8-2020)	-10.01%
標普500YTD(截至17-8-2020)	4.68%

續增持舊經濟股(三)

市況短評

版主本週五止賺ROP。ROP收購Saas軟件解決公司Vertafore。考慮近日科技股在指數上升時，普遍未能創新高，沽出換入APD。APD是一家工業氣體生產商，銷售大氣氣體，包括氧氣、氮氣、氬氣、氫氣、氦氣等，應用於眾多不同行業，如電子、化工、金屬、醫療、食品加工、石油天然氣等，版主認為APD可受惠於重啟經濟的舊經濟股，防守性稍高。

組合長倉持股(截至14-8-2020)	比重
北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至12-8-2020)	13.30%
美股
ETFs - Large Cap:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	16.14%
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust	29.30%
Internet Commerce:
Amazon.com, Inc.	5.59%
Computer - Mini:
Apple Inc	4.49%
Semi Fab Foundries:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd	4.59%
Semi General:
NVIDIA Corp	4.52%
Conglomerates - Div Operations:
Danaher Corp	4.18%
Medical Instruments:
Thermo Fisher Scientific	4.04%
Leisure & Recreational Prdcts:
Pool Corp	4.25%
Paint & Related Products:
Sherwin-Williams Company	3.55%
Building - Maint & Service:
Rollins, Inc.	4.37%
Chemical - Diversified:
Air Products & Chemicals	3.86%
Stepan Company	3.93%
現金+人壽儲蓄保險	9.33%
總倉位	115.40%
淨倉位(長-短-現金)	106.10%
組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息)	0.01%
恆指YTD(截至14-8-2020)	-10.66%
標普500YTD(截至14-8-2020)	4.39%

續增持舊經濟股(二)

市況短評

市場憧憬經濟重啟，版主今晚進一步沽出疫情受惠股，止賺CHD,CL,KMB,PG及微蝕沽CLX。增持不為人重視的道指ETF。舊經濟物流運輸轉強，不過版主以道指ETF一藍子囊括舊經濟，節省時間選股。組合仍舊持有一定數量科技股、醫療股，平衡組合。

組合長倉持股(截至12-8-2020)	比重
北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至6-8-2020)	13.18%
美股
ETFs - Large Cap:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	16.13%
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust	29.48%
Internet Commerce:
Amazon.com, Inc.	5.54%
Computer - Mini:
Apple Inc	4.36%
Semi Fab Foundries:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd	4.62%
Semi General:
NVIDIA Corp	4.32%
Conglomerates - Div Operations:
Danaher Corp	4.10%
Medical Instruments:
Thermo Fisher Scientific	3.97%
Paint & Related Products:
Sherwin-Williams Company	3.51%
Leisure & Recreational Prdcts:
Pool Corp	4.24%
Building - Maint & Service:
Rollins, Inc.	4.36%
Machinery - General Industrial:
Roper Technologies	4.30%
Chemical - Diversified:
Stepan Company	3.91%
現金+人壽儲蓄保險	9.44%
總倉位	115.42%
淨倉位(長-短-現金)	105.98%
組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息)	0.07%
恆指YTD(截至13-8-2020)	-10.5%
標普500YTD(截至12-8-2020)	4.63%

續增持舊經濟股

市況短評

8,9月看來是科技股傳統弱勢月份，但並非整體大盤也弱勢。組合暫時止賺QQQ，及沽出近期買入的MSFT&FB作開刀對象。要有心理準備原先疫情受惠股隨著疫苗進度未來更進一步而資金徐徐流出，組合增持多點舊經濟股，如買入無人再重視的道指ETF，及曾買過的SHW，SCL。

組合長倉持股(截至10-8-2020)	比重
北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至6-8-2020)	13.12%
美股
ETFs - Large Cap:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	16.03%
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust	9.34%
Internet Commerce:
Amazon.com, Inc.	5.55%
Computer - Mini:
Apple Inc	4.36%
Semi Fab Foundries:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd	4.67%
Semi General:
NVIDIA Corp	4.31%
Conglomerates - Div Operations:
Danaher Corp	4.12%
Medical Instruments:
Thermo Fisher Scientific	4.02%
Paint & Related Products:
Sherwin-Williams Company	3.49%
Leisure & Recreational Prdcts:
Pool Corp	4.33%
Building - Maint & Service:
Rollins, Inc.	4.37%
Machinery - General Industrial:
Roper Technologies	4.31%
Soap and Cleaning Products:
Church & Dwight Company	4.62%
Clorox Company	4.17%
Colgate-Palmolive Company	4.01%
Procter & Gamble Company	3.80%
Consumer Prdts - Misc Staple:
Kimberly Clark Corp.	3.93%
Chemical - Diversified:
Stepan Company	3.89%
現金+人壽儲蓄保險	9.00%
總倉位	115.40%
淨倉位(長-短-現金)	106.45%
組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息)	-0.05%
恆指YTD(截至10-8-2020)	-13.53%
標普500YTD(截至10-8-2020)	4.01%

版塊輪動再現

市況短評

踏入8月，科技股尤其中小型雲端Saas股明顯抖抖，組合暫時止賺ADBE。因不想買入過多舊經濟股，想維持一定數量科技股，換碼至FB。FB最新一季業績超預期，早幾年前曾一度不少人指FB天花板已見，但幸好收購了instagram & whatapps，用戶數量keep到，廣告收益上升，而且抖音被追剿，人們少了時間玩抖音，可能益了FB；FB旗下IG推出了TikTok複製品Reels。

組合長倉持股(截至7-8-2020)	比重
北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至5-8-2020)	12.76%
美股
ETFs - Large Cap:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	15.88%
Invesco QQQ Trust	8.86%
Internet Commerce:
Amazon.com, Inc.	5.60%
Internet - Services:
Facebook	4.07%
Computer - Mini:
Apple Inc	4.33%
Computer - Software:
Microsoft Corp	4.12%
Semi Fab Foundries:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd	4.65%
Semi General:
NVIDIA Corp	4.34%
Conglomerates - Div Operations:
Danaher Corp	4.17%
Medical Instruments:
Thermo Fisher Scientific	4.01%
Leisure & Recreational Prdcts:
Pool Corp	4.33%
Building - Maint & Service:
Rollins, Inc.	4.32%
Machinery - General Industrial:
Roper Technologies	4.26%
Soap and Cleaning Products:
Church & Dwight Company	4.59%
Clorox Company	4.18%
Colgate-Palmolive Company	3.96%
Procter & Gamble Company	3.75%
Consumer Prdts - Misc Staple:
Kimberly Clark Corp.	3.89%
現金+人壽儲蓄保險	9.21%
總倉位	115.30%
淨倉位(長-短-現金)	106.10%
組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息)	0.3%
恆指YTD(截至10-8-2020)	-13.53%
標普500YTD(截至7-8-2020)	3.73%

增持大型科技股

市況短評

組合逆向止蝕，減持SPY，再買入MSFT，星期六才得悉原來微軟正欲收購TikTok，怪不得股價近日一直整固中。版主一向甚少買細細粒及上市時間較短的科網企業，不過爆發力一向最強都是市值相對較細的科網股，版主是駕馭不了的，而且這些中小型Saas股已經狂升了一大段時間，找不到買入點，即使買入後也沒有太多彈性去加注或減持，因此暫時繼續觀望。

組合長倉持股(截至6-8-2020)	比重
北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至4-8-2020)	12.71%
美股
ETFs - Large Cap:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	15.84%
Invesco QQQ Trust	8.88%
Internet Commerce:
Amazon.com, Inc.	5.59%
Computer - Mini:
Apple Inc	4.30%
Computer - Software:
Microsoft Corp	4.20%
Adobe Systems Inc	4.37%
Semi Fab Foundries:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd	4.63%
Semi General:
NVIDIA Corp	4.29%
Conglomerates - Div Operations:
Danaher Corp	4.23%
Medical Instruments:
Thermo Fisher Scientific	4.13%
Leisure & Recreational Prdcts:
Pool Corp	4.33%
Building - Maint & Service:
Rollins, Inc.	4.28%
Machinery - General Industrial:
Roper Technologies	4.28%
Soap and Cleaning Products:
Church & Dwight Company	4.61%
Clorox Company	4.14%
Colgate-Palmolive Company	4.04%
Procter & Gamble Company	3.76%
Consumer Prdts - Misc Staple:
Kimberly Clark Corp.	3.80%
現金+人壽儲蓄保險	9.09%
總倉位	115.50%
淨倉位(長-短-現金)	106.40%
組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息)	0.53%
恆指YTD(截至7-8-2020)	-12.98%
標普500YTD(截至6-8-2020)	3.66%

8月大盤例弱?

市況短評

組合週五晚沽出MSFT及 BIO，換碼納指QQQ。MSFT自七月中出業績後，走勢一直弱於納指，有點食老本感覺，看來蘋果才是更受惠宅在家娛樂＋工作一身概念股，細小移動型產品是其優勢，止賺MSFT。BIO業績好過預期不少，但Q2盈利按年增長下跌唔少，加上業績後股價以下跌收盤，蝕手續費離場及換碼至QQQ。

直至目前，組合不少股票皆業績優於預期及出業績後有良好反應。雖則以下跌比率及下跌幅度以言，8月是美股12個月中表現最差，但今年市況是近數十年以來屬相當特殊的年份，傳統指標未必一定準，仍然覺得今年是2009年翻版。

組合長倉持股(截至31-7-2020)	比重
北美指數追蹤基金mpf (截至29-7-2020)	12.78%
美股
ETFs - Large Cap:
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust	20.20%
Invesco QQQ Trust	8.82%
Internet Commerce:
Amazon.com, Inc.	5.67%
Computer - Mini:
Apple Inc	4.19%
Computer - Software:
Adobe Systems Inc	4.38%
Semi Fab Foundries:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd	4.67%
Semi General:
NVIDIA Corp	4.19%
Conglomerates - Div Operations:
Danaher Corp	4.20%
Medical Instruments:
Thermo Fisher Scientific	4.08%
Leisure & Recreational Prdcts:
Pool Corp	4.26%
Building - Maint & Service:
Rollins, Inc.	4.23%
Machinery - General Industrial:
Roper Technologies	4.26%
Soap and Cleaning Products:
Church & Dwight Company	4.75%
Clorox Company	4.24%
Colgate-Palmolive Company	4.08%
Procter & Gamble Company	3.76%
Consumer Prdts - Misc Staple:
Kimberly Clark Corp.	3.82%
現金+人壽儲蓄保險	9.00%
總倉位	115.60%
淨倉位(長-短-現金)	106.58%
組合YTD(未計股價已除淨但未到派息日的股息)	-1.60%
恆指YTD(截至3-8-2020)	-13.24%
標普500YTD(截至31-7-2020)	1.25%